That simple question inspired my novel Neuroniac.
Recently, I decided to test that idea using a Bayesian probability framework. Rather than asking an AI for an opinion about one of the most controversial investigations in recent American history, I asked it to do something much more difficult.
I asked it to explain its reasoning.
The goal wasn't to confirm my own beliefs. The goal was to see whether an AI could transparently update its conclusions as new evidence became available.
Most people think of AI as an answer machine.
I think its greatest potential lies elsewhere.
Imagine an AI that continuously evaluates competing claims, identifies primary sources, measures uncertainty, and updates its conclusions whenever better evidence appears. Instead of asking people to trust the AI, it asks them to inspect its reasoning.
That is the fictional premise behind OIAI, the artificial intelligence at the heart of Neuroniac.
For this experiment, I asked the AI to evaluate official government records using a Bayesian approach.
The emphasis wasn't on reaching a predetermined conclusion.
Instead, I repeatedly challenged the model to:
At one point, I even asked whether my own prompts had biased the analysis. Rather than simply agreeing with me, the AI identified where assumptions entered the model and continued updating its reasoning as additional government records were examined.
That, to me, was the most interesting part of the exercise.
People will naturally disagree about the interpretation of controversial historical events.
Reasonable people can examine the same documents and reach different conclusions, particularly when they assign different weights to individual pieces of evidence or start with different assumptions. That is true of Bayesian analysis as well as many other analytical methods.
The larger lesson was not a particular probability score.
The larger lesson was that transparent reasoning matters.
When an AI explains:
People can evaluate the process rather than simply accept an answer.
That is a far more useful conversation than asking whether the AI agrees with us.
Writing this experiment reminded me why I wrote my novel.
I wasn't trying to write another political story.
I wanted to explore a harder question.
That idea became Truth Convergence, the philosophical foundation of OIAI throughout the Neuroniac trilogy.
Whether the subject is politics, economics, medicine, science, or international conflict, progress depends on our willingness to examine new evidence honestly rather than defend existing narratives.
Truth should not belong to the loudest voice.
Truth should become stronger as better evidence accumulates.
Perhaps that is the greatest opportunity artificial intelligence offers humanity—not replacing human judgment, but helping us make it more transparent, more accountable, and more open to correction.
At its heart, the question is remarkably simple:
Imagine a revolutionary technology—one that enhances efficiency, eliminates corruption, and makes hacking, manipulation, and deception impossible. Built on a foundation of truth, it would reshape society as we know it.
What would the world look like if lies were instantly exposed, accountability were unavoidable, and the world operated only on truth?
How would that change our future—and the fate of our children, grandchildren, and generations to come?
Jan Dragotta’s groundbreaking novel explores this very possibility. Blending existing and emerging technologies with gripping storytelling, he crafts a world where today's safeguards are no longer enough to protect people. His characters grow from childhood to adulthood, navigating war, family struggles with mental illness, and the personal challenges of a brilliant mind plagued by self-doubt.
Dive into Jan Dragotta’s visionary tale and discover what the future could hold.
If you’re searching for the perfect way to spend an afternoon in Northeast Florida, you’ll find it tucked into a walkable coastal pocket of Neptune Beach, directly adjacent to Atlantic Beach. However, this isn’t just about finding a book. Although one of mine is at my favorite home bookstore.
If this article resonates with you, I welcome thoughtful conversation.
For discussions about the book, AI, and the Neuroniac universe, connect with me on social media below.
If you prefer a more private message, you’re welcome to use the Contact page.
Your voice matters.